The Federal Budget | Matt for Utah

Why this matters

Washington now spends more on interest than on the military. That money buys no roads, no troops, and no care for seniors. It goes to the people we borrowed from, and every family in Utah carries a share of it.

Most of us were raised on a simple rule: live within your means, stay out of debt, and set something aside for hard times. Utah families live by it, and so does our state government. Washington doesn’t.

I’m not writing this to blame one party. Both parties have run up the debt, and both have perfected the art of blaming the other side. Utahns are tired of that. We expect the same honesty from Washington that we expect at our own kitchen tables.

This paper lays out the real numbers, explains where the money actually goes, and proposes a plan that asks something of everyone, including my own party.

The numbers

The federal government ended fiscal 2026 (October 2025 through September 2026) about $2 trillion in the red. That’s the 25th straight year of deficits.

Measure	Figure	Source
FY2026 deficit	$1.99 trillion, about 6.2% of GDP	Treasury, via Newsweek
FY2026 spending vs. revenue	$7.4 trillion spent, $5.4 trillion collected	American Action Forum
Net interest, FY2026	First year over $1 trillion	Peter G. Peterson Foundation
Debt held by the public	About 100% of GDP now; 120% by 2036, a record	CBO, February 2026
Projected deficit in 2036	$3.1 trillion a year	CBO, February 2026
Social Security retirement trust fund	Runs out in late 2032	CRS
Benefits payable after that	About 78% of scheduled benefits	NARSSA
Medicare hospital trust fund	Runs out in 2033	National Taxpayers Union Foundation

Two dates matter most. In about six years, unless Congress acts, every retiree’s Social Security check is cut by roughly a fifth. A year later, Medicare’s hospital fund hits the same wall. Those cuts happen automatically. No vote is required, which is exactly why Congress keeps putting it off.

Where the money goes

Most federal spending is never voted on in a normal year. It flows automatically under laws already on the books, or it’s interest we owe on past borrowing.

Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), projected FY2026 outlays.

The yearly budget fights in Congress cover only the grey bars, about a quarter of the total. Interest alone now costs more than the entire defense budget. That’s why a plan that ignores Social Security, Medicare, and interest can’t fix the debt, no matter how many agencies it cuts.

Why both parties’ answers fall short

Each party has a favorite fix, and each one leaves out the hard part.

“Cut waste, fraud, and abuse.” Waste is real and worth going after. But eliminating every agency people like to complain about wouldn’t close the gap. Spending outside defense that Congress votes on each year is about $1 trillion. The deficit is about $2 trillion.

“Tax cuts pay for themselves.” They don’t, at least not by the measures of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Growth helps, and a good tax code encourages it. But revenue as a share of the economy has stayed close to its 50-year average while spending has climbed well above its own.

“Just tax the rich.” Higher-income Americans can and should pay their fair share, and closing loopholes is part of my plan. But a gap this size can’t be closed by one group of taxpayers alone without real damage to investment and jobs.

“Don’t touch Social Security or Medicare.” I understand the instinct, and I share the goal of protecting seniors. But doing nothing is itself a choice: under current law, benefits get cut automatically in the early 2030s. Protecting these programs means fixing them on purpose before that happens.

The honest answer is a mix: some savings, some revenue, and fixes to the programs that drive the long-term numbers. Any politician who says otherwise is selling something.

My plan

The goal is to stop the debt from growing faster than the economy within ten years, so that the debt-to-GDP ratio levels off and starts to fall. That target is realistic, and it’s the one budget experts across the spectrum point to.

Make pay-as-you-go real. Any new tax cut or new program has to be paid for, with no exceptions for one party’s priorities. Congress has a pay-as-you-go law already, but it routinely waives it. I’d require a two-thirds vote to waive it and publish every waiver.
Fix Social Security before 2032, not after. Replace today’s 12.4% payroll tax and its cap with one flat rate of about 10% on every dollar of wages, so more than nine in ten workers get a tax cut. Above $200,000 in income ($250,000 for couples), business profits from active work pay the same rate as a paycheck, and capital gains, dividends, interest, and rent pay half that rate. Retirement withdrawals and Social Security benefits are never taxed. Slow benefit growth for the highest earners, raise the retirement age gradually for younger workers based on lifetime earnings, guarantee a poverty-line minimum benefit for full careers, and protect everyone already retired. Details are in my Social Security paper.
Lower Medicare costs without cutting care. Expand Medicare’s power to negotiate drug prices. Pay the same price for the same service whether it’s done in a hospital or a doctor’s office. Stop overpaying private Medicare Advantage plans compared with what the same patients would cost in traditional Medicare.
Clean out the tax code. Washington spends hundreds of billions a year through special deductions and credits that work like spending but get far less scrutiny. I’d end subsidies for highly profitable industries, close the carried-interest loophole, and review every tax break on a set schedule.
Hold defense to the same standard. A strong military is a priority, and so is getting our money’s worth. The Pentagon has never passed a full financial audit. I’d tie part of its budget growth to making progress on that audit and to weapons programs staying on cost.
Take the fight out of the deadlines. Shutdowns and debt-limit standoffs cost money and solve nothing. I’d support an automatic stopgap that keeps the government open at current spending levels if a budget isn’t passed, plus a two-year budget cycle.
Create a fiscal commission with an up-or-down vote. Let a bipartisan commission of members of Congress and outside experts write a package, then guarantee Congress votes on it as a whole, with no amendments. That’s how the country closed military bases in the 1990s without each member protecting their own.

What Utah can teach Washington

Utah has held a AAA credit rating since 1965 and has never been rated lower by any agency. That didn’t happen by accident. It came from habits Washington could copy:

A balanced budget, every year. Utah’s constitution requires it, and the rating agencies cite that rule as a core strength.
Saving in good years. By law, at least a quarter of any surplus goes into the state’s rainy day funds until they hit their caps. In 2025, those savings exceeded the state’s general obligation debt for the first time.
Cautious forecasts. Utah plans around conservative revenue estimates and adjusts during the year instead of hoping growth bails it out.

A state budget isn’t a federal budget. Washington has to fight recessions and wars, and sometimes it should borrow to do that. But the habits carry over: plan honestly, save when times are good, and don’t pass costs to the next generation without a vote that says so.

The bottom line

Good stewardship means not handing our kids a bill we ran up. We can’t fix the debt by blaming the other party, and we can’t fix it by pretending the hard choices aren’t there. I’ll support any serious plan that stabilizes the debt, whoever’s name is on it. And I’ll oppose any bill that adds to it without paying for it, including bills from my own party.